In Search of Weather Windows

Fall 2009

The kayaking season doesn't have to end after Labor Day. Just be more cautious.

This is an article from WaveLength Magazine, available in print in North America and globally on the web.

To download a pdf copy of the magazine click here: DOWNLOAD

Clayoquot Sound, end of September.

Prepare all you want for that big summer weekend getaway, but the grand plans will be all for naught if the wrong weather system moves in.

You just never know here in the Pacific Northwest/BC. It can rain in August, and the sun can shine in October. Not always, of course, but surprisingly often the season’s prevailing weather simply doesn’t prevail.

For those who risk the odds by kayaking in the off-season, the rewards can be substantial. The summer haze disappears, giving wonderful snowclad mountain views when the clouds break. The water is clearer of bacteria, allowing unfettered exploration of the intertidal life. And the boat traffic and competition for campsites disappears.

You just have to pick and choose your moments – that is, you have to find a weather window and run with it.

Anne McCarthy, a weather service specialist for Environment Canada, puts it this way: "It's not the highway traffic that's going to get you. It's that one big Mack truck," she says. "The average number of storms don't swamp you – it's the individual storm fronts that swamp you."

So while it might be helpful in long-range trip planning to know that Tofino, for instance, gets just 10 to 11 days with rain on average per month in July and August, and 22 days with some rain in November, that doesn't guarantee anything. Especially if you were kayaking on Aug. 26, 1975, when a record 131.3 mm (5.16 inches) of rain fell in what should have been the dry season.

But things do change over the course of the year in the Pacific Northwest and BC. Essentially during the summer a high pressure system builds off California, which pushes the coastal storm fronts north – good for us, but not necessarily so for the Gulf of Alaska, which can see considerable storm activity even in the summer.

Later in the year the high pressure system off California will weaken, and the tussle begins as the storm fronts fight to move back down the coast toward central British Columbia while the warm air continues to try to push it north.

"Think of it like sumu wrestling but on a much larger scale," McCarthy says.

What can hit the coast are two types of systems. One is the Gulf of Alaska lows, which are large-scale and can drag frontal systems down the coast.

But particularly troublesome are the smaller systems known as coastal lows that can "bomb" – that is, drop from a low pressure system to a quite severe storm in a relatively short period of time (as little as nine hours, McCarthy says). This is of particular concern to kayakers, since it can bring intense winds. This makes it one of the key reasons that careful monitoring of weather conditions is always necessary.

In addition in winter, tropical moisture can bring extra winds and copious rain. But the changing weather can also bring fog. For instance, Victoria averages one hour of fog (measured as limited visibility) in June and July while November sees close to 20 hours. This won't be anything new to many coastal travelers who see fog throughout the summer along the outer coast. But it can play havoc in more protected areas, particularly south Vancouver Island and Puget Sound.

The off-season is at its best when short windows of exceptionally good weather break through. That can mean outbreaks of clear and cold weather, with the potential for snow. But it can also mean relatively balmy periods when a warm front manages to push up, bringing a bulge of warmer air through the region.

These are the day-to-day breaks where you can't plan trips in advance, but you can take advantage of them when they come. The trick is planning for the changes that occur during off-season paddling.

One of George Gronseth's favorite off-season paddling destinations in Washington State is Skagit Flats. The winter season means migratory birds, often by the tens of thousands. One of his more memorable experiences includes watching an eagle kill a duck in flight.

But there's occasionally a surprising physical reminder of how the season has changed. Freshwater runoff into the saltwater can freeze, leaving the ocean frozen over in a layer of ice.

As owner of Kayak Academy, Gronseth has learned to take nothing for granted on the water. One crossing of about a half-mile in Desolation Sound many years ago still stands out. The forecast was benign, but in the middle of the crossing a local squall hit, with winds reaching 30 knots in a matter of minutes.

"No one capsized but it was a very eyeopening experience," he says.

Winds are just one of the many changes to watch in off-season paddling. While winds can hit any time of year, they tend to be more unpredictable off-season and potentially stronger.

"Things can go from calm to windy faster than they typically do in summertime, and if you're going to get stormy weather there's a higher chance of getting really strong winds," Gronseth says.

There are also more insidious aspects to wind. For instance, it becomes harder to turn a kayak, which can create a horde of unexpected outcomes.

One, of course, is the kayak's tendency to turn sideways to the wind. Weaker or novice kayakers may find they don't have the skill to turn back into the desired direction.

Another danger is a group separating. Gronseth says he has seen two outcomes: some who are nervous will speed up, while others who are nervous will slow down.

When strong paddlers speed up and away from less strong paddlers, it can turn particularly dire.

"Because they're strong doesn't mean they're brave enough to turn back," Gronseth says. "They may be thinking, 'If I turn around I'll capsize, so I'll just keep going and hope everyone else is okay.'"

The answer to wind concerns is proper trip planning – particularly careful attention to forecasts and updates. Also, plan shorter crossings, stay to more protected waters and generally plan shorter trips.

Shorter days are another factor. Waiting out wind or currents means a much greater likelihood of paddling into the dark, especially since sundown during the winter can be as early as 5 p.m. Overcast days will mean darkness even more quickly.

This means carrying extra equipment. A flashlight is a legal requirement in the U.S. for being on the water after sunset. So is an emergency signal such as a package of rocket flares.

Then there's the issue of dropping temperatures – both in the air and on the water. Changing water temperature is less of an issue in the winter on the ocean. Gronseth cites Puget Sound, the San Juans and the Gulf Islands where temperatures may be in the high 50s F in August and early September but the low 50s F in winter – not a dramatic change.

But anyone who figures it will be safer to be on fresh water in the winter due to the lower exposure may have to think again. For instance, Lake Washington may warm up into the 70s F during the late summer, but drop to near-freezing in winter.

Saltwater areas near large river systems can also be prone to colder temperatures, occasionally forming ice.

The answer, of course, is proper immersion gear. And Gronseth measures the need this way: "If the water is colder than you care to swim in, you ought to be wearing some thermal protection."

Weather: keep in contact

Keeping current on changing weather conditions is key to safety in off-season conditions. Storms can develop quickly, which means the need to respond to and change plans as the conditions change.

This makes a VHF radio an indispensable safety device, not only for being able to monitor weather channels but as a means to provide two-way communication should trouble emerge.

Many resources are available online now, of course. Canadian marine forecasts are available at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca or by calling 604-664-9010.

In the U.S. visit www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/marine_only.php