Decision Making in a Crisis

Making decisions is an integral part of kayak touring. Route choices, equipment, paddling partners, food selection— on and on goes the list of decisions we make before, during, and after our adventures on the water. Many of us make seemingly spontaneous decisions, relying on our past experiences, training, and gut instinct to guide us. For the most part, the consequences of these decisions are minor; after all, who really cares if we have pasta instead of rice for dinner? In other circumstances, decisions do have a direct impact on our personal safety and the safety of the people with whom we paddle. For example, the decision to paddle an injured friend across a large bay at night to get to medical help is a serious one, affecting the safety not only of the injured paddler, but the rest of the group as well.

A hierarchy of decision making is evident from the examples above. We can divide the types of decisions we make based on their potential consequence or risk.

Low Consequence Decisions

These decisions have little or no impact on the safety of the individual or group. Rice or pasta for dinner is an example of a low consequence decision.

Medium Consequence Decisions

These decisions have the potential to impact on the safety of the individual or group. Making the decision to travel along the exposed outer coast of a large island instead of traveling along the sheltered inside channel is an example of a medium consequence decision.

High Consequence Decisions

These decisions have a direct and immediate impact on the safety of the individual or group. The decision to evacuate a friend is an example of a high consequence decision. There is value in dividing decisions into these three categories because it helps us explore the kinds of decisions we make and their potential consequences. This article focuses on high consequence decisions.

There is a high degree of urgency embedded in most high consequence decisions. The urgency is created when events impose tight time constraints and high levels of risk. This results in a great deal of mental stress. This mental stress is often coupled with the physical stress of cold water, big seas and other environmental factors, and physiological stressors such as fatigue, hypothermia, or disease. These stressors can make decision making harder. Stress elevates our heart rate, speeds up our breathing, and moves us toward anxiety, potentially creating an overwhelming need for “flight or fight”.

The problem is that, in this state, we tend to make decisions based on emotion and not intellect. The result is that we don’t consider all the available information, but instead latch onto the first or second available option. The result may be an ill-considered plan that puts the affected paddler and the rest of the group at additional risk.

Each of us has an ideal level of stress, where the excitement of adventure is rewarding; unfortunately, there are fine lines between excitement, anxiety, fear, and finally panic. Too little stress and we aren’t motivated; too much and we can’t see the forest for the trees.

JUDGEMENT

The perfect decision does not exist. There is no single right answer to a problem. Instead, over time we develop a set of skills, knowledge, and experience that guide our decisions. This set of skills, knowledge, and experience is often referred to as “judgement”. As we develop our judgement, our decision making improves. In fact, our goal in decision making is the seemingly spontaneous application of good judgement. Because judgement is based on individual experience, decisions based on judgement will vary from individual to individual.

New paddlers need guidelines and even rules to guide their decision making. More experienced paddlers can make more spontaneous decisions and identify exceptions to the rules. The following table frames these distinctions in terms of the growth of a paddler from novice to advanced. The table is based on an article by John Gookin, the former National Outdoor Leadership School (NOLS) Curriculum Manager.

So how do we make better high-consequence decisions? There are four stages in developing high consequence decision making skills: model, plan, practice, and reflection.

1. Model

The first stage is to familiarize yourself with a decision-making model. Models serve as a mental shorthand for decision making. There are five steps in this model:

• define the problem

• gather information about the problem

• choose a strategy to address the problem

• act on your strategy

• reflect on the efficacy of your strategy.

The value of a decision making model is in its identification of discrete, progressive steps, which serve to slow the mental process of decision making and provide a checklist. A clearly defined approach to decision making helps you cope with the dynamics of a high consequence decision. I carry a copy of this model in my journal; in times of stress, I pull it out and walk through the steps. This slows down my decision making and gives me the mental space to reach a thoughtful decision.

2. Plan

The second stage of high consequence decision making is to plan. Many high consequence decisions centre on health and safety. First aid training, capsize recovery practice, navigation and weather skills, and route planning (including access and egress points, medical facilities and transportation services) all have a direct bearing on your ability to respond effectively to an emergency. Discuss in advance with your group what decisions you might take and the information you will need in the event of likely problems such as severe weather, large surf, bears or cougars, injury and ill health. Remember the six Ps: “Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance”.

3. Practice

The third stage is to practice with the model and the plans; use these tools with low and medium consequence decisions where the risk of a weak decision is less severe. Sea kayak guides and instructors design scenarios that require low, medium, and high consequence decision making as a tool for practicing these skills. Indeed, scenarios are a central component to most sea kayak training and certification. Recreational paddlers can learn from scenarios as well. Design your own scenarios, reflect on your own past experiences, and read and discuss the experiences of others.

4. Reflection

The final stage is to reflect on the model, your plans, and the practice of your decision making. An important tool for reflection is the paddler’s log. Memory is faulty and selective. A written record of your decision making is a valuable tool for future reference. If possible, log your thinking while you are making a decision. This has two benefits: first, the process of writing down your thoughts slows your thinking, allowing for more considered decisions; second, it is a snapshot of your thinking and state of mind during the stress of making important decisions.

Often there is not time to use the paddling log during the decision-making process, so write the information down as soon afterward as possible. Discuss your decisions with paddlers you trust; their perspective can be useful in highlighting alternative strategies and additional information. Examine your decision through the lens of the decision-making model with the benefit of hindsight.

Here are some questions that can direct your reflection. Did you clearly identify the problem? What information did you gather? Was it sufficient? Was other information available that would have made your decision easier? How effective was the strategy? Did you have to modify the strategy as new information came to light? What would you do differently in the future? What would you do the same?

GETTING STUCK

We can get stuck when making high consequence decisions, as the pressure can be so overwhelming that we are unable to make a decision and act on it. This is a kind of thought-freeze that often results from sensory overload.

There are two strategies for dealing with this. First, plan ahead by anticipating the kinds of decisions you might have to make. Gather the necessary information and develop strategies for dealing with common problems. These plans serve as checklists that can walk you through tough decisions. Second, try something, even if you aren’t sure it will work. The simple act of making a decision, even if you aren’t certain about its efficacy, creates momentum and will bring new information to light. Workable solutions are often developed through the ongoing feedback that comes from trial and error.

SUMMARY

Decision making under stress can be difficult. With a clear and simple decision making model to guide our thoughts, clear contingency plans for common and serious problems, and practice, we can develop good judgement to guide our decisions. Over time, we will refine our judgement and high consequence decisions will be made methodically and calmly.

© Michael Pardy runs ‘Geophilia Adventures—SKILS’, a company offering sea kayak guide training. He can be reached at info@skils.ca.