Guide's View: The Go / No Go Decision

April-May 1998

This is an article from WaveLength Magazine, available in print in North America and globally on the web.

by Rick Davies

You wake up just before dawn, the tent is flapping in the stiff breeze and you can hear light rain pattering on the fly. Ah well, another day on the B.C. coast. I guess after last night's superb sunset, we can put up with a front moving through. Then you realize it's the Monday of a long weekend and the last day of the trip. Everyone in your party is due back at work on Tuesday after another fantastic trip in sea kayak paradise. Hmmm! I wonder if we'll get out today? It's quite a crossing and that wind is cutting through my fleece.

You were asked (cajoled?) by your friends to organize this trip, and although you've had a couple of seasons kayaking, you don't really see yourself as a leader. Certainly, you've done the courses, practiced the rescues and read Matt & George's excellent book on Deep Trouble, but now as you crawl out of the tent something changes in your outlook on life. The carefree fun filled weekend is suddenly reduced to a cold feeling in your belly, because you know that five others are looking to you to make that go-no/go decision.

It's now seven'clock and people are beginning to emerge from their tents, stretch and look dismally at the weather. Breakfast and morning coffee movements are starting behind the logs on the beach. You suddenly don't feel like breakfast: other things are on your mind. So you walk over to the point and it doesn't look to bad at the moment, but there's a wide gray mass of nimbus to the southeast and you know it will gradually work it's way north over the next few hours. I wonder how long it will take to get here? Shall we run or shall we sit tight?

When that front is on us the sea will be right on our tail. It'll give us a good push, perhaps, but then again Sue and Bill don't have rudders. It's only their second overnight trip and their West Greenland boats are going to slew in the trough of the following sea if the waves start to crest. I better check the tables to see if it'll be a "wind against tide situation." You start to get that feeling in the pit of your stomach that you really don't want to take responsibility for this decision. You wish a mentor would suddenly materialize and tell you what to do.

It's now nine'clock. You're all standing looking out to sea, coffee mugs in hand, discussing the situation. Jim doesn't see any problem. He's handled heavier seas than this in the Charlottes and anyway, what are we here for, if not to challenge the outdoors! ....pressure! Sue announces that it's imperative that she is at work early in the morning as she has an important meeting....more pressure! Terry isn't so sure. It looks pretty scary to him...pressure combined with possible conflict! Bill mentions that you guaranteed find weather....more pressure! Barbara says she'll go along with whatever you decide....decide! how the hell can I decide, I don't have the criteria, the years of experience or anything else to base the decision on! So you tell them you'll wait awhile to see if the conditions are going to change...whew! that's let me off the hook for a half an hour. Meanwhile, Jim tells you to stop dicking around, then starts packing his boat. Boy, he looks serious about this. If he puts in and the rest follow him we could all be in trouble and I'll look a fool because I completely abdicated my responsibility. I don't want to be here!

Let us have a look at this scenario.

So far our leader has considered some excellent, objective factors. The nimbus, the wind, the tide, the party capabilities are but a few. What is needed is a solid set of factors to refer to, so that the decision is rational and credible in the eyes of the party. It will also give you the confidence that you have made the best possible decision under the circumstances. What will also give you more confidence is if you accept that a decision can still be a good one even if it has an undesirable outcome. This may be a radical concept to some, but the decision stands alone in this space and time right here and now where you are making it, so give it your best shot. The outcome happens in the future and is separate from the decision. Also, the outcome may easily be determined by unpredictable factors which didn't exist at decision-time. The other thing to remember is that your decision is not cast in stone. You can re-evaluate throughout the trip.

To start the go/no-go decision making process:

Begin at the time you want to end the trip and work backwards to now. We want to leave for home in our cars at six therefore we must hit the beach at five therefore we must start the last crossing at three therefore we must be at....etc etc. Finally we must leave here no later than eleven therefore we must start packing at nine-thirty. Then I mustn't forget to add the 30% "fudge factor." The decision therefore does not have to be made before nine-thirty, so relax, enjoy that morning coffee and don't start worrying before you have to. We're doing this for fun, remember?

A Few Points to Consider in the Above Scenario:

1. Are you biased by the fact that Sue said she has to be at work for her meeting. If this had been the second day of a four-day trip, this factor wouldn't even be considered. In fact you would probably hang out in camp for a day. How many of us have succumbed to risk taking for the sake of "the boss". No job is worth your life.

2. Let's face it, Jim has got you rattled. He's itching to get his boat in the water. We can easily get caught up in this one. Especially if we don't want to appear "chicken" by taking the cautious route. Here's where the interpersonal side of leadership comes to the fore. You have to handle Jim and the rest of the party to avoid a division in the group.

3. As a general rule, if there is doubt in your mind, stay put. As you gain experience over the years, you may make a different decision, but when you think about it, there are many reasons to wait, but very few reasons to launch. Even in the gravest medical emergency it is normally better to summon help and stay put, rather than risk taking a patient through heavy seas. Sending someone out to get help in bad weather may also be unwise, as you now have the potential for two emergencies.

4. A cell or VHF radio probably has more uses for telling people you are safe, than for calling for help. You'll be surprised how much it reduces the stress level in yourself and your party once you have established contact with the coast guard or the folks back home and told them you'll be a day or two late. The whole world suddenly brightens and your decision making becomes easy.

5. Remember the old saying..."If you don't like the weather in B.C., wait five minutes."........Yes, we've all heard stories about the massive Gulf of Alaska Low that pounds that coast for nine days, but these situations are in the minority, and a wise leader would have been listening to the weather forecast anyway. It's amazing how quickly a squall can blow through, and waiting an hour can mean the difference between kayaking with "dry mouth" and sheer bliss.

So, back to the go/no-go decision. The decision making spectrum is a simple device for recalling all the factors that should be taken into accept. There was once a training session that started "Under emergency conditions some of us are cool, calm and collected... this session is for the other 99%!" and it's the same for the pressures that our leader in the above scenario is under. A laminated spectrum under the deck bungies or in your chartcase will take most of the guesswork out of decision making. We designed ours as a result of extensive interviews with many experienced kayakers and leaders, and it simply lists all the factors to be taken into account. It makes your decision that much more rational and all-encompassing. Part of our example is shown above.

At the left end of the spectrum, conditions are such that the decision is easy because conditions are perfect. At the right end, conditions also lend themselves to an easy decision because no-one in their right mind would take a party out in those seas.

The area of doubt in the centre section is where our anxiety lies, but with the objective criteria laid out like this, you can check off the factors. This will broaden your thinking to encompass all angles and make the best possible decision with the information you have. This is what experienced leaders do, only they usually do it mentally. But, and this is a big but, even the most experienced leader is fallible under stress, and this is why the last two items on the list are "listen to your own intuitive feeling" and ask the party "How do you feel about it, is there anything I've missed?"

Rick Davies is a professional trainer who enjoys wilderness travel and says "Every year I spend on the water, I realize how much I have still to learn about the sea." His ambition is to be an old kayaker. He can be reached at RR#1 C-50, Bowen Island, BC V0N 1G0 Ph: 604/947-0671